Hopeful homebuyers have faced challenging housing dynamics over the past few years, due in part to the ongoing recovery from the red-hot pandemic-era market. Understandably, housing decisions have taken center stage for many as achieving homeownership has become less attainable. The recent U.S. presidential election placed Donald Trump at the helm once again, which was met with mixed reactions. A recent Realtor.com® survey asked buyers and sellers how the outcome of the recent U.S. presidential election affects their expectations for the housing market. Perhaps predictably, market optimism varies across party lines as well as across generations.
Republicans more positive, Democrats more negative in housing expectations
Roughly 1 in 5 Republicans (18%) are more likely to purchase a home as a result of the election. On the other side of the aisle, 1 in 4 Democrats (24%) indicated that they are less likely to buy a home as a result of the election.
Respondents who are more likely to purchase cited reasons including optimism about the economy (22%), trust in the new administration (19%), and expectations the housing market will improve (17%).
Respondents who are less likely to purchase cited economic concerns (23%), concerns about the new administration (20%), and other personal reasons (17%) associated with the outcome of the election.
A recent analysis found that 22 states shifted redder and 9 states shifted bluer from 2020 to 2024. The geographical differences in political affiliation could affect the housing market in the coming year due to differing buyer sentiment.
Men and Gen Z more positive than other groups
Interestingly, male respondents and Gen Z respondents cited the most positive associations with the outcome of the election as it pertains to housing. About 1 in 5 men (18%) are more likely to purchase a home as a result of the election outcome compared with just 10% of women.
Gen Z respondents were both more likely (22%) and less likely (23%) to purchase a home in response to the outcome of the election. Aged roughly 12–27, Gen Z members might feel the most impact from the election due to their current life stage and expected life changes over the next four years.
The 2024 election was only the first or second election most Gen Z voters aged 18 and up have been old enough to participate in. Additionally, Gen Z voters who are considering housing decisions are more likely to be first-time buyers without the benefit of existing home equity to leverage into a home purchase. As a result, shifts in the economy or housing market could be make-it or break-it for Gen Z homebuyers, while older generations might expect less of an impact.
Millennials also indicated the influence of the election on housing decisions, with 19% responding that they are more likely to buy a home and 19% saying they are less likely to. Generally, older generations might feel less influenced by the election in terms of housing decisions due to life stage, existing home equity, income level, general economic stability, and experience living through administration changes.
Methodology
This poll was conducted on Nov. 7–8, 2024, among a national sample of 2,201 adults aged 18 and up. The survey was conducted online, and the data was weighted to approximate a target sample of adults in the U.S. based on gender, educational attainment, age, race, and region. Results from the survey have a margin of error of between +/- 2%.
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