Ars Technica reports that there has been a lot of recent activity at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX. This activity suggests that two ISS astronauts (Wilmore and Williams) could come home aboard a Crew Dragon spacecraft rather than Starliner.
Nextbigfuture believes that it is a needless risk to have the astronauts return on Boeing Starliner. Multiple engineering teams within NASA agree. Sending astronauts on Starliner despite not knowing the root cause of helium leaks and thruster problems is as reckless as the choices to use the Space Shuttle before fatal accidents.
They have NOT identified a root cause for why 5 of Starliner’s RCS thrusters failed during docking.
One informed source said it was greater than a 50-50 chance that the crew would come back on Dragon. Another source said it was significantly more likely than not they would. NASA has not made a final decision. This probably will not happen until at least next week. It is likely that Jim Free, NASA’s associate administrator, will make the call.
There is still at least a small risk to flying Starliner in its present condition, the space agency and Boeing have tested the thrusters as thoroughly as possible while the spacecraft is docked to the space station. This testing was intended to “buy down” these risks. But while the data is good, it has not addressed all of NASA’s concerns.
* NASA keeps delaying a decision. A Flight Readiness Review meeting had been scheduled for today, August 1, several days in advance. However, it was canceled. Instead, NASA put out a vague blog update on Thursday stating, “Following the completion of Starliner’s return planning, which is expected to continue into next week, more information will be shared about the agency’s return readiness review preparations and subsequent media briefing.” So maybe the meeting will take place next week.
* NASA issued a $266,678 task award to SpaceX on July 14 for a “special study for emergency response.” NASA said this study was not directly related to Starliner’s problems, but two sources told Ars it really was. Although the study entailed work on flying more than four crew members home on Crew Dragon—a scenario related to Frank Rubio and the Soyuz MS-22 leaks—it also allowed SpaceX to study flying Dragon home with six passengers, a regular crew complement in addition to Wilmore and Williams.
* SpaceX has been actively working on a scenario in which two or four astronauts launch on board Crew 9. (A normal crew is four) This mission has a nominal launch date of August 18, but it could well be delayed. SpaceX has already identified flight suits that would fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to fly home on the Crew-8 spacecraft (presently docked to the space station) or the Crew-9 vehicle. It is unclear how crews would be assigned to the two Dragon return flights. It is possible, if four astronauts launch on Crew 9, that five people could fly home on each of the two Dragons.
* Two sources told Ars that in meetings this week at NASA field centers, there have been vigorous discussions about whether or not to fly crew home on Starliner. Multiple groups remain “no” on Starliner as of Wednesday. It is unclear how this will be resolved. Some engineers believe that if there are questions about Starliner, then NASA should opt for the safe course—flying on Crew Dragon, which has safely launched 13 times and landed 12 times.
Boeing is pushing for the use of Starliner.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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