Topline
Democrats are floating plans for choosing a replacement for President Joe Biden if he decides to bow out of the race—what would be an unprecedented and potentially chaotic process the party would have just weeks to complete before delegates are set to convene in Chicago next month to formalize their nominee.
U.S. President Joe Biden pauses while speaking during a NATO 75th anniversary celebratory event at … [+] the Andrew Mellon Auditorium on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., was the first major figure to publicly suggest the party could survey potential Biden replacements by conducting a “mini-primary,” a proposal echoed by New York Times columnist Ezra Klein and longtime Democratic political consultant James Carville.
If Biden drops out and the party doesn’t coalesce behind a new nominee before the convention, the event—typically a formality with an outcome predetermined by primaries—could become a political cage match not seen in decades as hopefuls compete for the 4,700 Democratic delegates who will vote to select the nominee.
The mini-primary process would precede the convention and its exact process is not yet clear, but it could involve a campaign blitz between Biden-replacement hopefuls via a series of town halls, public forums, speeches, debates and other events designed to familiarize voters and delegates with the potential new nominee on a fast-tracked schedule (though a mini-primary is unlikely to happen if Biden drops out and endorses a successor).
Democrats could conduct an open convention if Biden drops out of the race and doesn’t endorse a replacement, leaving his delegates free to vote for whoever they please at the convention—though if Biden does end his campaign and anoints a successor, his delegates would be inclined (but not legally required) to vote for that candidate.
Similar to an open convention, Democrats could hold a brokered convention, in which all delegates would show up to the convention uncommitted, subject to back-room deals “brokered” by local and state party bosses along with elected officials, which historically have led to dozens of rounds of voting (brokered conventions were regular practice before the party changed its convention rules in the 1970s to require delegates commit to the candidate who wins their state’s primary).
If Biden stays in, and an insurgent candidate, or candidates, attempted to challenge him at the convention, it would become a contested convention in which the success of the president’s opponents would depend on a significant share of the nearly 3,900 delegates he won in the primaries (far more than the 1,976 needed to clinch the nomination) risking their own political futures by spurning Biden and voting for an opposing candidate until one receives a majority of votes.
Do Delegates Have To Vote For Biden?
Convention rules state that the 4,000 “pledged” delegates “shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” meaning they’re expected, but not legally required, to vote for Biden. If no candidate secures a majority of delegate votes on the first ballot, pledged delegates, along with the 700 “unpledged” delegates, can vote for whoever they please on the second ballot. Unpledged delegates do not vote in the first round.
What To Watch For
The Democratic National Convention is set for Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Democrats are planning to formalize the nominee in a virtual roll call before then, a move that was planned to ensure Biden was on the ballot in Ohio, which previously required parties to select their nominees 90 days before the Nov. 5 election. Ohio has since changed its law, but Democrats are expected to go forward with the virtual roll call as planned.
Contra
If Biden drops out, Vice President Kamala Harris is widely considered the most likely option to replace him as the nominee for a multitude of reasons. She is already on his ticket, meaning she can seamlessly take over his campaign war chest, allowing the party to avoid the complicated process of dispersing the funds to another candidate, as it would legally be required to do. She also benefits from name recognition, and most polls show her outperforming other Biden replacement options. Clyburn and former Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, have suggested Harris replace Biden if he drops out. Ryan explicitly called for that scenario in a Newsweek op-ed last week. Clyburn has said he supports Biden, but also floated the idea of a “mini-primary,” telling CNN he would “absolutely” support such a process, though he would back Harris in the truncated campaign if that were to occur. Clyburn emphasized that the party should “bolster” Harris and should not “do anything” to prevent her from replacing him, if he drops out.
Crucial Quote
Carville, who was among the first high-profile Democrats to call on Biden to step aside in the race in the wake of the June 27 debate, warned that Democrats risk appearing as if they rigged the process and chose a nominee without public input if they don’t engage in some form of a mini-primary if Biden drops his bid. “We’re not going to do that,” he wrote in The New York Times. “We’re going to nominate a new ticket in a highly democratic and novel way, not in the backrooms of Washington, D.C., or Chicago.”
Tangent
In addition to Harris, some names commonly floated as Biden replacements include Democratic governors Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear and Colorado’s Jared Polis. Whitmer has disavowed calls for her to run in Biden’s place and denied a Politico report that she told Biden’s campaign he couldn’t win Michigan after the debate. Newsom, in interviews immediately after the debate, expressed his unwavering support for Biden, telling reporters in the spin room “I will never turn my back on President Biden,” as chatter about the prospect of him replacing Biden was already underway before the debate even ended. Pritzker and Beshear have offered tempered criticism of Biden and urged him to do more to reassure the party and voters he is up to the job after his debate performance, though neither explicitly called on him to step aside in the race.
Key Background
Biden has rebuffed calls to step down in the race, insisting that the “average voter” still wants him to run, he said Monday on MSNBC, despite most post-debate polls showing Trump widening his lead in the wake of the debate. Biden has conceded the debate was a “bad night,” but has insisted he’s still the best candidate to beat former Trump in November. As part of a concerted clean-up effort, the president has been leaning on his base, appealing to unions and Black and Hispanic voters. He’s also sat for a flurry of media interviews—which featured some shaky moments and were widely viewed to have gone better than the debate, but not well enough to undo the damage. Calls from Democrats for Biden to step aside in the race have continued to trickle in since, with a total of 10 Democrats in Congress as of Wednesday urging him to step aside, while other influential Democrats, including Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Michael Bennet, D-Colo., have expressed doubts that he can beat Trump.
Further Reading
Rep. Pat Ryan Becomes 10th Congress Member Calling For Biden Replacement: Here’s The Full List (Forbes)
What Happens If Biden Drops Out? An Open Convention Is One Option—Here’s How It Works (Forbes)
Can Democrats Replace Biden? Here’s What Would Happen If Biden Leaves 2024 Race. (Forbes)
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