The debate over Ezekiel Elliott’s role this past week kind of came out of nowhere. Coming off the Cowboys’ best rushing performance of the year, which highlighted a career night for Rico Dowdle, it didn’t seem like the time to question whether or not there should be a change in the running back rotation. Yet, the question was asked of Mike McCarthy in preparation to face the Lions.
Asked Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy about Zeke Elliott role, he said they will operate at running back like they did last week.
Elliott was at least supposed to be red zone and shortyardage back but he has not been used much
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) October 9, 2024
Not long after this response from McCarthy, Elliott himself was asked about his role and how he felt about it. The response from the former fourth-overall pick immediately sparked controversy.
Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott confirmed he has talked to the coaches about his role and remains dumbfounded by his lack of opportunities at least as red zone back
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) October 10, 2024
The timing of all of this couldn’t have been any more odd, given how the running game had been getting better in recent weeks as Dowdle cemented himself as the top running back. Furthermore, the notion that Elliott was not seeing work as a red zone or short-yardage back was lacking much-needed context.
Prior to Week 6, the Cowboys were seriously lacking in opportunities for Elliott. They ranked 25th in red zone appearances and the average distance to go on third down was 7.3 yards. In other words, they weren’t getting to the red zone and they weren’t getting into true short-yardage situations.
Even when they did find themselves in those situations, Elliott hardly proved himself as reliable. Among 13 red zone trips in the first five games, the Cowboys handed the ball off to Elliott three times and he tallied just four yards. Dowdle had as many red zone carries, though two of those three came against the Steelers when he had the hot hand. Prior to that game, Elliott had been the clear go-to option for any red zone runs, though Dallas didn’t run the ball much in the red zone.
In terms of short-yardage plays, the Cowboys have had 36 plays with three yards or less for the first down, regardless of what down in the series it was. Of those 36 plays, the team has run the ball 25 times; Elliott makes up seven of those carries and is averaging 3.1 yards, while Dowdle has 11 attempts and averaged 4.8 yards. Again, much of Dowdle’s work in this area came against the Steelers.
A close examination of game situations and actual usage reflects that the Cowboys were honoring the supposed agreement with Elliott as to what his role would be when he returned to Dallas. When McCarthy called a run in the red zone or in short-yardage scenarios, Elliott was often the guy. However, his results had been discouraging thus far, which made it easier to give more carries to Dowdle when he began to go off against Pittsburgh.
Then came Week 7. Questions were asked about Elliott’s role, and the running back admitted to being unhappy. When the Cowboys took the field to face the Lions, everything changed.
In the first five games, Elliott was seeing just 22% of the offensive snaps and averaging four carries per game. Suddenly, he saw 41% of the offensive snaps and led the team with eight carries. Meanwhile, Dowdle played on just 28% of offensive snaps, the first time all year he had been below 40%, and carried the ball five times.
This marked a drastic departure from the norm for this year’s version of the Cowboys, with Dowdle’s usage being slashed while Elliott’s usage effectively doubled. It’s hard to chalk it up to coincidence that this major shift occurred just days after Elliott publicly admitted dissatisfaction with his usage.
It didn’t make a difference, though, because Dowdle still led the team in rushing despite the flip flop in carries. He had 25 yards on five carries, averaging a strong five yards per carry. Elliott, on the other hand, tallied just 17 yards and just barely averaged over two yards a carry. Dowdle was the only Cowboy to even run for a first down, something that is a critical piece of having success as a short-yardage back.
In terms of efficiency, neither Cowboys running back had a particular good day, but the difference in results was striking. Dowdle averaged -0.03 EPA/rush with a 40% success rate while Elliott averaged -0.34 EPA/rush and a 12.5% success rate.
To put this into perspective, only eight other running backs have posted a worse single-game success rate than Elliott against the Lions. It was a new low even for the Cowboys, whose worst single-game success rate for a running back prior to this game was 30%, also posted by Elliott back in Week 1. Coincidentally (or not), that was also the last time Elliott led the team in carries.
If there was ever any doubt that Elliott was no longer capable of being the top dog in this running back rotation, then the Cowboys certainly took care of that this week. It was already becoming clear that Dowdle was the most explosive runner in the backfield, and his career night against a really good Steelers run defense should have been the impetus for an even larger role.
Instead, the Cowboys scaled his snaps back considerably to make way for their former star player, and Elliott made it very clear that McCarthy and this coaching staff had correctly judged his effectiveness prior to the Lions game. There are plenty of things this team needs to adjust during the bye week, but this one is easy: go back to Dowdle as the top dog and Elliott coming in when the situation calls for it.
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