As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 10 game against the Washington Commanders.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Run Game Controls Game, Keeps Jayden Daniels Off The Field
The best way to handle the Commanders’ high-flying offense and stud rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is to play keep-away. Glue Daniels and company to the bench with long drives that chew up the clock. Pittsburgh should be able to run on a Commanders’ defense that struggles to defend the run and often plays from two-high looks against 11 personnel. A less-heavy approach of tight ends might be the way to go to soften up the interior.
The more time Daniels is spent watching from the sidelines, the less he can impact the game. Washington is used to playing from ahead and dictating tempo. Flipping that script will be important.
2. Alex Highsmith Wins Big Again
In Week 8, Highsmith took advantage of his 1v1 opportunities and had a field day with ex-Steelers lineman Chris Hubbard. Depending on the publication, Highsmith had anywhere from 10 to 12 pressures in the win over the New York Giants and finished with two sacks.
Can he do it again? He’ll face a rookie in third-rounder Brandon Coleman, replacing the still-injured Cornelius Lucas. I liked Coleman coming out of college and he’s played well this season. Highsmith’s matchup here isn’t a layup like the New York game. But it still could favor Highsmith as T.J. Watt continues to earn every offense’s full attention.
3. Special Teams Proves To Be Difference
Big swing in Pittsburgh’s favor here. The Commanders ruled out K Austin Seibert with a hip injury, turning to Zane Gonzalez. He hasn’t kicked in a regular season game since 2021 and has had a shaky career, especially in his first few seasons with the Cleveland Browns.
That gives the Steelers the advantage with Chris Boswell. There’s other elements to consider here. Commanders’ punter Tress Way is excellent and they had a good return game. But they also allow more kick returns than most teams. Cordarrelle Patterson could finally run something back this week and given the hot streak Pittsburgh is on, maybe he busts loose. Meanwhile, the Steelers will be bolstered by other special teams returners like LB Tyler Matakevich, who should be a core ‘teamer.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Their Defense Plays Slow
My primary concern for this game and catalyst for my prediction below. Washington’s offense under new OC Kliff Kingsbury throws a lot of defenses. Multiple with window dressing. Tempo and different personnel groups. It’s enough to put a team on their heels. Pittsburgh’s defense shines brightest when they can play fast and aggressive. See ball, get ball.
Against the Commanders, it’s going to be different. A little Colts-like with Anthony Richardson with the RPOs and QB run threat, though Daniels is a far more consistent and accurate quarterback than Richardson. Big worry here, especially when the Commanders push the tempo at home. Not like Pittsburgh’s defense has gotten off to good starts, allowing points on five of the eight first drives this season.
2. Washington Finishes Drives Better Than Pittsburgh
Whoever is better in the red zone will likely win this game. The Commanders are 26th, the Steelers are 28th. On paper, Pittsburgh could have the advantage with the No. 1 red zone defense. But I’m still worried about Washington coming out with a good game plan to out-leverage the Steelers’ defense in the flat down low. But this category – along with turnovers – will be key.
3. Commanders Two-High Looks Robs Deep Ball
Above, we discussed the Steelers ability to run the ball against Washington’s two-high look. But that could take away some of the downfield passing game, especially on early downs. The Commanders do tend to man-up on third down which works in Pittsburgh’s favor but they may switch that scheme to take away the outside vertical threats of WRs George Pickens and Mike Williams. Would love to see Williams make a play over rookie corner Mike Sainristil.
Prediction
Commanders: 30
Steelers: 28
Season Prediction Record
4-4
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