With so many prospects moving, is it fair to definitively declare right now who won or lost the deadline? Probably not.
Should that stop us from trying? Absolutely not.
The trade deadline came and went with more of a whimper than a bang. Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Mason Miller, the type of game-changing talents who could have defined the deadline, all stayed put with their respective teams. Baseball’s best prospects did, too.
Still, some contenders made vital moves to better position themselves in October, while others could end up paying the price for shopping more on the margins. Meanwhile, some teams out of contention set themselves up swimmingly for the future, while others were content to bask in mediocrity.
[Related: 2024 World Series odds: Dodgers favored after huge trade deadline move ]
These are the biggest winners and losers of the 2024 trade deadline:
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds to win the World Series: +330
After a series of depth moves that didn’t address their greatest need, the Dodgers hit a game-winning buzzer-beater. Sure, Tommy Edman and Amed Rosario could help fill in at a number of spots on their depleted roster, and Michael Kopech could end up the latest in the Dodgers’ long line of bullpen reclamation successes. But the Dodgers are winners here because, in a market with almost no impact starters, they managed to find one. Given his ability to miss bats and limit free passes, Jack Flaherty was the most consequential starting pitcher to change hands at the deadline, and the Dodgers got him at a reasonable cost with the clock winding down. Their October rotation was filled with uncertainty. Now, they have some insurance.
Loser: Chicago White Sox
Odds to win the World Series: +100000
Teams were offering a boatload for rental relievers. I can only imagine what they were willing to give for Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. Instead, in a lost season, the White Sox held onto both. The one big deal they did make, trading away Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Michael Kopech, netted them a light package back. (I say this as someone who is still a believer in a fresh start for Miguel Vargas.) Given all the shiny pieces wasting away this year in Chicago, it sure felt like they could have done a lot more to shape their future.
Winner: Seattle Mariners
Odds to win the World Series: +3000
The Mariners desperately needed to add an offensive punch. They found arguably the best one available in Randy Arozarena and added some depth to the group with Justin Turner. Is that enough to best the Astros and reverse the course of a Seattle offense that has looked like one of the most meager groups in the sport? Maybe not. But Arozarena, especially alongside Julio Rodríguez for the next few years, provides hope for Mariners fans who were running out of it. The addition of Yimi García to the bullpen could be sneaky important, too.
Loser: Houston Astros
Odds to win the World Series: +1500
The Astros needed to bolster their rotation and could have upgraded at first base. They did the former — Yusei Kikuchi should be a helpful depth piece — but the prospect cost was far steeper than anyone could have expected, and the latter never came to fruition.
Winner: Peter Bendix, Marlins
Odds to win the World Series: +100000
After making the playoffs last year, this season has been wretched for Marlins fans. There was front office upheaval, a whole lot of nothing to help the roster, and then a whole lot of losing. Bendix, who took over the operation after Kim Ng’s departure, was brought in to rebuild again. The early May trade of fan favorite Luis Arráez signaled his intentions. At the deadline, he followed through, getting a massive haul of prospects headlined by Robby Snelling (acquired from the Padres in the Tanner Scott deal), Connor Norby (acquired from the Orioles in the Trevor Rogers deal) and Agustin Ramirez (acquired from the Yankees in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. deal). There was plenty more, too. Bendix revamped a Marlins farm system that needed the jolt, getting an especially impressive return for Scott and Rogers. He was brought in from Tampa Bay to help develop the next core of Marlins players. Now, his staff has a whole lot more to cook with.
Winner: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees
Odds to win the World Series: +550
You know what’s more fun than leading the Marlins this year? Leaving them. Chisholm was an All-Star at 24 years old and the cover athlete of MLB The Show at 25, yet, for a litany of reasons (health being among them), we never saw him reach his full potential in Miami. If his first few days in pinstripes are any indication — he has four homers in his first three games — maybe the bright lights of New York unlock the best version of the dynamic talent.
Loser: People who were here for a good time
Remember last year, when Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer both got dealt to contenders? This was not that. There was no blockbuster deal, no last-second star-studded package. The Blue Jays decided not to deal Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt or any of their controllable assets. The A’s kept Miller and Brent Rooker. The Giants held onto Snell. The Mets got too competitive to deal Pete Alonso. The Tigers and White Sox held the keys to the deadline with Skubal, Crochet and Robert, and they all stayed put. Whether you like what the Rays did or not, thank goodness for them, or this would have been even more of a snoozer.
Loser: Milwaukee Brewers
Odds to win the World Series: +2000
After their surprising first half, the Brewers had an opportunity to reward their team by getting the starting pitching that could make them more confident in an October rotation. As good as Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have been, another impact arm behind Freddy Peralta seemed like a must. While they did add, the additions of Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale aren’t exactly inspiring.
Loser: Minnesota Twins
Odds to win the World Series: +1600
The Twins did basically nothing this offseason, yet still had enough talent to be considered among the top contenders in the AL Central. After a streaky first half, they entered the deadline in prime position to challenge the Guardians for the division crown. Adding a bit more on the margins, including another starting pitcher, could have helped. Cleveland added Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb. The Royals bolstered their bullpen after some prudent offseason moves. The Twins … did basically nothing again. They made just one addition: reliever Trevor Richards. Certainly, they could still win the division. But with so many talented pieces on the roster, it’s a shame they couldn’t do more to try to separate.
Winner: The future Rays
Look, I’m not saying this process should be commended. But, I guess if you’re going to sell, you might as well completely revamp the farm system in the process. This was peak Rays, only this teardown was more thorough than the typical, as Tampa Bay took full advantage of the sellers’ market. It feels like every player from the top six rounds of the 2023 draft is now in the Tampa Bay system. That’s what happens when you trade Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam and more. Given the Rays’ ability to develop players, they have likely just found their new core of the future amid a horde of prospects that included highly-regarded talents in Dylan Lesko, Brody Hopkins, Aidan Smith and Jackson Baumeister.
Loser: The current Rays
Odds to win the World Series: +11000
The Rays’ system clearly works. You know what would be more fun, though? If they paid their good players, too. The Rays have a winning record and yet still felt the need to dismantle their core. Tampa Bay’s track record of success would suggest it’ll work out in the end. A plethora of their injured starters will be back next year, and they needed to make room for top prospect Junior Caminero. But it’d be a whole lot sweeter if Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes were part of the next great Rays team rather than a casualty of it.
Loser: San Francisco Giants
Odds to win the World Series: +17000
This felt like an opportunity for the middling Giants to declare their direction. They could have added a significant piece and built on their offseason spending. Or, with an enticing trade chip in Blake Snell, they could have sought a significant prospect return in a seller’s market after their uninspiring first half. Instead … they dumped salary. They got off the Jorge Soler deal, saving money and opening a spot for a younger player, and added Mark Canha. They traded away Alex Cobb on the precipice of his 2024 return. They’re not going for it, but they’re not not going for it. They’re still not great. They’re still not awful. They’re hanging out in the middle, where they’ve been for far too long.
Winner: The Padres, D-backs and Royals bullpens
Odds to win the World Series: Padres, +3000; D-backs, +4000; Royals, +4500
A.J. Preller is playing the hits. One thing the Padres’ president of baseball operations is not going to do is sit idle while other baseball teams get in on the fun, especially with the pressure currently on him to win. Now, that pressure cooked up another notch this deadline. Goodbye, prospects. Hello, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. The back end of the San Diego bullpen looks lethal, which is a good thing considering a rotation in need got no help. Really, all three of these teams could have done more to patch holes elsewhere — that’s especially the case in the Royals outfield — but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the additions of Hunter Harvey and Lucas Erceg in Kansas City and A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro in Arizona making a significant difference.
Loser: Colorado Rockies
Odds to win the World Series: +100000
One year, the Rockies will set their alarm on deadline day. That year, yet again, was not this year.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner .
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