With the Paris Olympics just weeks away, the French government is preparing to ‘Host The World’. However, the path to the formation of the next government looks like an Olympian effort. Europe’s second-largest economy is staring at a political gridlock, with two unlikely allies coming together to stonewall a common foe but now wary of sharing power. A roller-coaster parliamentary election season saw the surge of the far-right National Rally in the first round of the snap polls. But their euphoria was undone in the second round, with ‘tactical voting’ giving the edge to the Centrists and the Left coalition.
While the New Popular Front (NPF) emerged as the largest bloc, with 188 seats in the 577-strong Parliament in their kitty, a majority eluded them. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition surpassed exit poll expectations, emerging as runners-up with 161 seats. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which emerged as the leader in the first round, coming the closest ever to forming France’s first far-right government since the Second World War, won 142 seats. The result: a hung parliament, with a prospective Left-Centrist coalition government in the near horizon. A broad coalition, unlike other European nations, is an anomaly in France.
Alliance Seats Vote share New Popular Front 188 26.30% Ensemble 161 24.70% National Rally Alliance 142 37.10% Republicans 48 6.20% Other 38 5.60%
The Left and the Centrists: Can they co-habitate?
The NPF, an alliance of socialists, greens, and communists, and the far-left French Unbowed have their own differing stances on a number of issues. They have time and again taken potshots at one another. However, these parties chose to keep their political differences aside for what they termed—The Mother of All Battles—to keep the far-right out of power. Even as the NPF managed to secure the largest chunk of seats, the lack of an absolute majority makes it imperative for them to ally with Macron’s Ensemble.
Lobbying for positions in the new parliament has already begun. Jean-Luc Melenchon of the France Unbowed has staked claim to the post of Prime Minister for his party. Gabriel Attal, the incumbent PM from Macron’s Renaissance Party offered to resign, but the French President has asked him to stay on. A statement from the President’s office said, “The President has asked Gabriel Attal to remain prime minister for the time being in order to ensure the country’s stability.”
While formal negotiations for Government negotiations are yet to begin, Melenchon and the France Unbowed may prove to be a headache for the Centrists. While tactical voting by Centrist and Left voters may have blocked the ascendance of the Far-Right, the NPF and Ensemble views on issues seldom converge. In the words of Green party leader Marine Tondelier, “It’s not going to be simple, no, it’s not going to be easy, and no, it’s not going to be comfortable.”
The manifesto wars
That’s not all, a quick look at the manifestos of both blocs makes it more or less clear that both have differing views on how they wish to take France forward.
NPF Ensemble Lower retirement age to 60 Retirement age currently at 64 Index pension to wages Index pension to inflation No planned increases in power and gas bills Cut power bills by 10–15% Scrap unemployment pension reforms Extend tax-free bonuses Establish a wealth tax No mention of taxing the rich Achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 55% reduction in greenhouse emissions by 2030 More focus on renewables Build eight new nuclear reactor plants Soften the anti-immigration laws Reduce illegal immigration Establish a rescue agency by land and sea Ban social network access before 18 years of age
Prime Minister Attal has called the NPF manifesto ‘a shredder for the middle class’. The NPF, on the other hand, had quipped that they wanted a ‘Total Break’ from Macron’s policies.
Next Prime Minister: Who will Macron go with?
Emmanuel Macron’s political gamble of calling snap elections has paid off, but only partly. While the predicted decimation of the Centrist coalition had been avoided, he is now stuck with traditional rivals—the Left. As per rules, he cannot call for snap polls for at least another year. As per the French system of government, also known as the Fifth Republic, “The President of the Republic shall appoint the Prime Minister. He shall terminate the appointment of the Prime Minister when the latter tenders the resignation of the Government. On the recommendation of the Prime Minister, he shall appoint the other members of the Government and terminate their appointments.”
The law gives Macron a wide range of powers, including inviting the Prime Minister of his choice to form the government. Convention demands that Macron extend that courtesy to the leader of the largest party, which in this case, is the French Unbowed. But Macron may be reluctant to deal with their leader Melenchon, who has already thrown in the hat saying they’re ‘ready to govern’. Attal, in an apparent swipe at Melenchon said, “No absolute majority can be led by the extremes. We owe it to the French spirit, so deeply attached to the Republic and its values.”
Why are Centrists wary of France Unbowed & Melenchon?
The 72-year-old leader of the France Unbowed party is already projecting himself as the unopposed leader of the Left alliance. He has already said that ‘NPF will implement its program. Nothing but its program. All of its program.’
He had refused to condemn Hamas in the tragic aftermath of the October 7, 2023 massacre of Israeli civilians, triggering accusations of antisemitism. He has also vowed to recognise Palestine as a state. Paris presently doesn’t recognise Palestine as an independent country but supports the two-state solution. During an election rally in 2017, Melenchon said considering Russia a threat was American propaganda.
Parting shot
France may be staring at a political deadlock, with the pressure mounting on Macron to select a leader, who as Prime Minister would be acceptable across the board. Their ‘tactical’ unity was instrumental in staving off the rise of the National Rally, but divisions are bound to obtrude as government formation talks get underway.
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