All eyes in the wrestling world will soon turn to Paris when the 2024 Olympic Games begin.
A total of 18 gold medals will be awarded across six weight classes in men’s freestyle, men’s Greco-Roman, and women’s freestyle competition. The action kicks off Monday, Aug. 5, and wraps up with the final matches on Sunday, Aug. 11.
The United States wrestling team has been riding high over the past few years, including winning an event high nine medals in the 2020 Olympics — and that was without qualifying for every weight class available between the men and women. In 2024, the U.S. team sends 12 total athletes between the men and women in freestyle wrestling, which means every division is represented this year.
That gives the U.S. team an even better chance to top nine medals in this year’s Olympic Games, but which Americans are actually favored to win? Let’s take a look at some of the biggest wrestling storylines by division heading into the 2024 Olympics.
Men’s 125kgs
With 2020 gold medalist Gable Steveson turning his attention to football after signing with the Buffalo Bills, the heavyweight division is largely wide open heading into the 2024 Games.
Right now, the leader of the pack is 23-year-old Iranian Amir Zare, who is currently ranked No. 1 in the world after winning gold medals at the World Championships in both 2021 and 2023. Zare was a bronze medalist at the 2020 Games, but now he’s coming to Paris with three more years of experience and plenty of impressive wins along the way.
That’s not to say there won’t be some fierce competition coming for him, particularly with Georgian Geno Petriashvili competing again in 2024. He would have snatched a gold medal win at the 2020 Games if not for the stunning, last-second finish from Steveson that made him the youngest American wrestler to ever capture gold at the Olympics.
There are also several wrestlers competing in 2024 who have previous wins over Zare, including the U.S. representative Mason Parris, who pinned the Iranian back in 2019. A lot has changed since then, however, and Zare is riding high going into the 2024 Games, so it’s tough to bet against him. But there are more than a few legitimate challenges that should make heavyweight one of the most exciting divisions at the 2024 Games.
Gold medal prediction: Amir Zare
Men’s 97kgs
First and foremost, it has to be noted that 2020 gold medalist Abdulrashid Sadulaev, who at his peak has been arguably the best pound-for-pound wrestler in the world, won’t be competing in 2024 due to the Russian invasion into Ukraine. The Olympic committee ultimately deemed him ineligible to compete, so Sadulaev is sitting home for these games.
With Sadulaev out, 21-year-old phenom Akhmed Tazhudinov is far and away the favorite to win gold at the 2024 Games.
Born in Dagestan but now representing Bahrain, Tazhudinov shocked the world when he claimed gold at the 2023 World Championships by blanking two-time Olympic medalist Kyle Snyder with a 11-0 tech fall and then defeating Sadulaev in the finals. Tazhudinov hasn’t tasted defeat since February 2023 and it’s tough to see him losing in the Olympics.
That being said, Snyder returns for his third straight Olympics, and at his best, he can beat anyone in the world. At 28, Snyder is now suddenly the elder statesman of the competition, but he remains one of the top wrestlers in the world, having claimed a medal in every Olympics/Worlds he’s ever competed in. Iranian Amir Azarpira is another name to watch after beating Snyder back in January, and he’ll get a random draw, which means Azarpira could be an incredibly tough matchup for anyone who gets him in the opening round.
Gold medal prediction: Akhmed Tazhudinov
Men’s 86kgs
By all accounts, 2020 Olympic gold medalist David Taylor was far and away the favorite to win again in 2024, but then something strange happened … he didn’t end up making the Olympic team. Instead, fellow Penn State alum and four-time NCAA champion Aaron Brooks shocked him at the U.S. trials in April. Brooks won back-to-back matches to beat Taylor and effectively retire the 33-year-old veteran, who recently decided to stop competing and accept the head coaching job at Oklahoma State.
Now Brooks enters as the top seed at 86kgs at the 2023 Olympics, however he doesn’t have much experience at the international level, so it’s tough to predict exactly how he’ll fare at this level of the game. In theory, Brooks should still be a heavy favorite to win in Paris, but nothing is guaranteed, especially in a competition as fierce as this.
Taylor’s main rival over the past few years has been Iranian Hassan Yazdani. Yazdani is returning for the 2024 Games, so he’s undoubtedly going to be the fiercest opponent Brooks could face this year.
Gold medal prediction: Aaron Brooks
Men’s 74kgs
When his career is done, Kyle Dake will go down as one of the greatest American wrestlers in history, but the biggest glaring omission on his résumé is an Olympic gold medal. He’s a four-time World champion, which is more than any other representative on the U.S. team, but he came up short in his bid to win gold in 2020 after a shocking second-round loss by tech fall to Belarus’ Mahamedkhabib Kadzimahamedau.
Coming into the 2024 Games, Dake’s toughest competition by a wide margin would’ve likely been Russian Zaurbek Sidakov, who beat him in the gold medal match at the 2023 World Championships. Unfortunately, much like Sadulaev at 97kgs, Sidakov was ruled ineligible by the Olympic committee and there are rumors he’s considering a move to MMA rather than returning to wrestling.
Kadzimahamedau is also out of the 2024 Games after being ruled ineligible as well, which means Dake has a much easier field ahead of him. Dake holds wins over every other major competitor in his division, which makes him the heavy favorite to win gold in 2024. But does that leave him ripe for an upset like what happened in 2020? Only time will tell.
Gold medal prediction: Kyle Dake
Women’s 57kgs
The 2024 Olympics likely serves as the final appearance of American Helen Maroulis on the international stage after becoming the first American woman to capture wrestling gold back in 2016. She followed that up with a bronze medal performance in 2020, but then contemplated retirement before ultimately deciding to return for one more Olympic run.
At 32, Maroulis is the oldest U.S. female wrestler to ever compete at the Olympics, and she’s also the first to compete three times. But will she close out her final Olympics with a second gold medal?
It seems unlikely.
Japan is the most dominant nation when it comes to women’s wrestling, and even with two-time Olympic champion Risako Kawai not in the division this year, 22-year-old Tsugumi Sakurai now sits as the top contender at 57kgs. Sakurai is a three-time World champion with wins in 2021, 2022, and 2023 so it’s no surprise she’s favored to claim gold here as well.
A loss for Sakurai would be one of the biggest upsets at the Olympics, but Maroulis making a valiant run at another medal is definitely possible.
Gold medal prediction: Tsugumi Sakurai
Women’s 68kgs
Perhaps the most fascinating story to watch for the U.S. wrestling team in Paris centers around 20-year-old Amit Elor. She’s already the youngest woman to ever make an Olympic wrestling team, which obviously means she would be the youngest to ever capture gold.
The scary thing about Elor is she’s still very early in her career, and by the time it’s all said and done, she has the opportunity to become one of the most dominant forces in American wrestling history. Her run to her first Olympics has been impressive as well, as she tore through the competition at 72kgs in the World championships in both 2022 and 2023.
Elor hasn’t tasted defeat since 2019 at the Cadet Worlds and there’s little doubt about her status as the overwhelming favorite to win Olympic gold. Anything less than that would be considered a stunning result.
Gold medal prediction: Amit Elor
There are plenty of other stories worth watching from the American team, including another 20-year-old Kennedy Blades competing at 76kg after knocking off 2020 Olympic silver medalist Adeline Gray at the U.S. team trials. She has a tough road ahead of her in Paris, but Blades could potentially pull off the upset.
It’s tough to imagine the U.S. team making much noise in the Greco-Roman divisions, which has traditionally not been very kind to the Americans, but anything is possible.
With Americans qualifying 16 participants out of 18 possible spots (the only two absences come in Greco-Roman competition), there’s a strong chance the U.S. comes home with another record-breaking performance in Paris.
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